Hello friends.
Just a remember to my fellow, reality based, sensible (ahem) Democratic Party members on the Daily Kos that the sky is not falling.
more below the fold :
BWD gave us an encouraging diary where our POTUS demonstrated once again why we are so fortunate to have him as our President. It is instructive once again to note that this man is probably the most progressive President that we have ever had (measured by today's standard, not the standard of the times). Is there one person here who would once deny this ? In my view, he is also highly likely to be the most progressive person who could actually have won the Presidency in 2008. Is there one person who would once dare to deny this self-evident fact ? In view of these truths, ought we not show some sort of perspective ? Ought we not recognize this ? Or must be engage in a circle shoot out ? This is not to silence all criticisms, but it is to place them in some perspective and with the end consequences of our words in mind.
The job creation over the last couple of months has been meager for a couple of reasons that Bondad pointed out : for job growth to happen, businesses must have no other cheaper method of boosting production and thus, profits. Right now, they can increase hours of the employees (who lost hours during the Severe Recession) and they can increase the use of their capacity. Further, businesses must develop some confidence about their business going forward. As these things happen, hiring will happen. And they will happen.
We also see that the Senate is not likely to change hands in 2010. They would almost have to run the table on winnable races, including pulling off a number of upsets. And if they did that, then we can use the 60 vote rule just as they did. Of course, they are quite willing to use Budget Reconciliation. Still, it is unlikely that they will have that chance.
Republicans will need a lot of luck to take over the Senate. There are eleven Democratic-held seats that we show Republicans with a nontrivial chance of winning. In four of them, they are heavy favorites: North Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana, and Delaware. Four more are toss-ups: Pennsylvania, Nevada, Illinois, and Colorado. Finally, there are three where they are underdogs: Washington, California, and Wisconsin.
Republicans would need to win 10 of these 11 races to take over the Senate; even if they gained further momentum nationally (our model does not assume that the races behave independently), this is somewhat unlikely, given the idiosyncrasies involved in many of the contests. Meanwhile, they would need to hold Ohio, which is a toss-up with a slight Democratic tilt, and Missouri, which is a toss-up with a slight Republican tilt, as well as retain Kentucky, North Carolina and New Hampshire, either have Marco Rubio win in Florida or persuade Charlie Crist to caucus with them, and avoid a wildcard somewhere like Arizona or Louisiana.
CQ on the 9 toss-ups
Colorado Michael Bennet, D First appointed in 2009
Illinois Roland W. Burris, D First appointed in 2009 | Burris announced he would not seek election in 2010 following his appointment to the seat
Indiana Evan Bayh, D First elected in 1998
Kentucky Jim Bunning, R First elected in 1998
Missouri Christopher S. Bond, R First elected in 1986
Nevada Harry Reid, D First elected in 1986
New Hampshire Judd Gregg, R First elected in 1992
Ohio George V. Voinovich, R First elected in 1998
Pennsylvania Arlen Specter, D First elected in 1980 | Defeated by Rep. Joe Sestak, D, in primary on May 18, 2010
Earlier in the article,Nate notes that the trends on party id are flat. In Obama's address to Reid supporters, he hit exactly the right note: how enthusiastically are we going to support our party? I am a proud Democratic Party Member. I stand by its principles. I understand that there are some who are elected as Democratic Party Members and don't stand by some of its important principles, but that just means that these people aren't good or real Democrats. It doesn't mean that the party isn't a good party. And the Bull Moose Party can't win. It's either the Democratic Party or the Republican Party. While my party isn't perfect and has some members I wish that it did not, it is a good party and the other party is insane.
Whether the sky does actually fall will depend upon us. Will we support our country and by that make it better or will we let the perfect be the enemy of the good, allowing the insane to rule ?